discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

2013; Irannezhad et al. 2016). The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). 2014). Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. 2011). Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. 2015). In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. 2012; Meshesha et al. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. 2014). The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. 2015). The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. This 2015 . The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. 2013). The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. The south-easterlies bring rainfall from the IndianOcean. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. 2008; Subash et al. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. 2009). 2010 ). The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. ; ed. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. Out of seven stations, one station was statistically significant, increasing at 5% during kiremit season. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. 2016). Another study by Di Falco et al. 2014). Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. Warning: file(roboty.txt): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/kmichalski/domains/mikatextiles.com/public_html/ustawienia/init.php on line 0 . 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. 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