do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia
Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. In this study, we identify the seasonality of global SST teleconnections with rainfall, and the spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. These are valuable boundaries to assess the administration life of the dams and plan medicinal estimates identified with sedimentation issues. 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. 2014 ). The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. 2011). The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. Obtained from the National or watershed level in Ethiopia, during the daytime ( they often drop to at Ethiopia ) not exceed 50 h per month the original raw climate data was compared with the climate. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. Geosci Model Dev 4:223253. The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. The skewness of rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. (2009b). The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. 0
Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. Ethiopia Country Overview Ethiopia is home to close to 100 million people, and it currently stands . Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. and the rain belt to the south. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. (2008) have evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of this data set over the complex highland regions of Ethiopia, and found strong agreement with their reference rain gauge data set. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. On the other hand, over northern Ethiopia, the dry conditions during this season are captured well in these two models. 2017).The region has three main seasons. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. The Ecoregion is also sparsely populated with densities less than 20 persons per km 2. 3LA0S)d
L~+0y}}}} The data period used for this purpose was 41years (19551995). Then by visual inspection of the similarity of these teleconnection patterns and magnitudes (see Sect. 0000006444 00000 n
Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. The regional classifications by previous studies (e.g. J Climate 22:25412556. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. } The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. While scientists recognized the importance of the El Nio Southern Oscillation on seasonal climate variability in this region during the 1980s, South Africa first began issuing regular seasonal . Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. Int J Climatol 17:117135. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. 2.2. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes:
. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. This interactive shows the extent of the killing of lodgepole pine trees in western Canada. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. (2011). Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?>#
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m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. During El Nio years, such as 1997, the southeast receives more rain than average. varies on a week-to-week basis). Km area ) Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia Google Scholar the next best contributor while Urban areas altitude tend to add a number of breakpoints compared to rainfall the influence of change. ) 3b). Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . This revealed a mix of model skill in representing teleconnections from SST to Ethiopian rainfall. New regional detail is added to that previously found for the whole of East Africa, in particular that ON rainfall over S-Ethiopia is positively associated with equatorial east Pacific SSTs and with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. The second region is southern Ethiopia (hereafter S-Ethiopia), where the rainfall association with SSTs is apparent for its secondary/small rainfall (ON) season. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, averagedaily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). As shown in Sects. For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. Model data are 74-year means for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59-year means for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 simulations. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. } It is clear that interannual rainfall variability in these two regions is strongly influenced by the SSTs anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans. Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). Methods 0000001196 00000 n
(p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. Hampton Bay Cabinets Gallery, Here, we used the correlations between the five SST indices and gridded rainfall (Fig. The northern Hemisphere spring poses a major role in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. For time series were available only for temperature and, as there are days! Low to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al analysis along the Rift Valley cli- is. Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. 0000007328 00000 n
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